The jobs divide: Growth in highly paid jobs linked to lower support for Brexit

The study examines how quickly highly paid occupations replaced low- and middle-paid occupations across different areas between 1991 and 2016. The results show that people living in places where highly paid employment grew strongly over time were less likely to support Brexit in the 2016 EU referendum. The same pattern can still be observed today.

Sharp differences in political attitudes

Differences are stark. After accounting for a range of individual and local factors, the probability of supporting Brexit is around 30 per cent among people living in areas that experienced very strong growth in highly paid jobs, compared with around 55 per cent among those living in places where no such growth occurred.

The research combines England and Wales census data with individual-level data from the Understanding Society survey. Growth in highly paid employment emerges as a stronger predictor of Brexit support than other local economic indicators, including employment growth, GDP growth and house price increases.

Effects beyond individual jobs

The findings also suggest that the relationship is not conditional on personal success in the labour market. Employed residents in areas with strong growth in highly paid employment are generally less likely to support Brexit regardless of their position in the occupational hierarchy. Strong growth in high-quality employment seems to have benefits that extend well beyond the people who hold these highly paid positions.

The study explores several possible explanations for these patterns. Residents of places that have experienced strong growth in highly paid employment tend to rate local amenities such as shops, leisure facilities and public transport more highly. They also tend to have more favourable attitudes towards immigration and greater tolerance of different lifestyles.

Connecting the large sociological literature on occupational change to the literature on the geography of populism, the study suggests long-term processes of structural change shape how people experience their local areas and how they evaluate populist initiatives like Brexit.

About the study

The study was conducted by Katy Morris at the Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University, and the University of Leeds, and is published in Political Behavior. The research uses census data from England and Wales together with data from the Understanding Society longitudinal survey.

Read the full article:

The Labour Market Link: An explanation of Brexit support, Political Behavior

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