Research project Values, Choices and Uncertainty in Modelling of future climate (VaChUM)
In an interdisciplinary project we explore the role of values in shaping the way researching climate science is planned, performed and presented.
The large uncertainty in climate sensitivity motivates the climate science community to continuously evaluate and improve climate models and refine projections of future climate. Scientists are often unaware that the research process at many levels is influenced by social and ethical values; choices of problems to study, results to publish, models and parameter ranges to use, and ways to present and communicate results and their related uncertainty all reflect such values.
This project takes an inter-disciplinary approach on uncertainty in future climate projection. With a focus on aerosol-cloud interactions - highly uncertain and at the same time highly relevant for estimates of climate sensitivity - we explore how scientists produce knowledge, and how they estimate and present its uncertainty. Philosophy and science communities will be brought together and influence each other: while raising awareness in the climate modelling community of the presence and role of values, the project also allows for testing and revision of the application of existing philosophical ideals to climate science.
Pulkkinen, K., Undorf, S., Bender, F. A.-M. (2022) Values in climate modelling: testing the practical applicability of the Moral Imagination ideal, Euro. Jnl. Phil. Sci., 12, 68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13194-022-00488-4
Undorf, S., Pulkkinen, K., Wikman-Svahn, P., Bender, F. A.-M. (2022) How do value judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity?, Clim. Change, 174, 19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03435-7
Pulkkinen, K., Undorf, S., Bender, F. A.-M., Wikman-Svahn, P., Doblas-Reyes, F., Flynn, C., Hegerl, G. C., Jönsson, A., Leung, G.-K., Roussos, J., Shepherd, T. G., Thompson, E. (2022) The value of values in climate science, Nat. Clim. Chang., 12, 4-6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01238-9
Huusko, L. L., Bender, F. A.-M., Ekman, A. M. L., and Storelvmo, T. (2021) Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models, Environ. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0748
Bender, F. A.-M. (2020) Aerosol forcing - still uncertain, still relevant, AGU Advances, 1 (3), e2019AV000128